Arafat Approaching Death
Reuters article
This is not good, in my opinion. Palestine has been led almost entirely by Arafat, and there is little uniting the proto-nation other than him (paramilitary groups like Hamas do not unite a nation). If Arafat dies without a recognized and competent successor, all hopes for a peace with Israel are out of the question. This is because it is impossible to make peace with a leaderless nation; the leaders on each side must enforce the treaty on their own people, and a leaderless nation allows anarchy in foreign relations because the population has little reason to obey limits.
If Arafat is dying, here’s what should be done: First, have some power legally transferred to a legitimate leader (a video of Arafat declaring a ‘temporary minister’ for his absence would be great, if Arafat is still able to talk). Then, over a period of several months, give all governmental power to the ‘temporary minister’, and maintain strict discipline over the military and police, which are the largest threat to the Palestinian government. Third, make some short-term peace deal with Israel, so Palestine can focus on reorganizing its government, rather than trying to restrain militants or fighting its neighbor. If you can crack down on groups like Hamas, do so, as they are on the top-5 list of threats. After working out a cease-fire with Israel (which shouldn’t take that long, given the circumstances), double the salary of the military, police, and bodyguards to ensure that they are loyal and can not threaten a coup. It doesn’t matter where this money comes from – as long as it’s not stolen from the Palestinian population – the government could probably take a bit out of Arafat’s personal bank account, which is rumored to hold around 1 billion US.
Once this is done, the government must hold control over the population. The military’s increased salary will keep them happy if they have to work overtime a bit, so this should help prevent citizens from staging a revolt. However, the military and police are quite thin, so the government must find some way to keep the people happy. Free food is often a good way to make poor, hungry people happy, so that may work, depending on how hungry people are (if at all).
Groups like Hamas are unlikely to overlook the power vacuum, so they must either be appeased or suppressed. Appeasement would require a false promise to give them legitimate power, and that power must be given soon so the paramilitaries have some reason to trust the government (promises for positions after the government switches hands are rarely acceptable because there is no incentive to grant power once the government changes hands). Suppressing the paramilitaries would be hard, but is possible over a few months. The entire leadership and suppliers must be eliminated, thus destroying the organization of the groups, and they should either split apart or be inoperable for several months. This, however, is quite risky.
I believe steps like these may be of some use if Palestine is to endure Arafat’s death. If the nation is not prepared to exist without Arafat, it will dissolve into a paramilitary-controlled state without any real government or hope for improvement, and might be similar to Somalia or other paramilitary-controlled states.
However, I doubt there is enough time or capability in the hands of Palestine’s government. Arafat may already be dead, in which case Palestine just might be doing something like what I suggest, because the plan requires people to believe Arafat is still alive for several weeks or months.
The major issue is the future state of Palestine: will it have a centralized government or a Somalia-like anarchy with paramilitaries running around?
Yasser Arafat was critically ill in a French military hospital on Friday after falling into a coma, and a senior official said some of the Palestinian president's powers had been handed to his prime minister.
Aides said the condition of the 75-year-old leader, a decades-old symbol of the Palestinian struggle against Israel for a state, deteriorated on Thursday.
But the aides and a hospital spokesman denied reports he was dead. They also dismissed reports he was brain dead, although the exact nature of his illness remained unclear.
"President Arafat is in a very serious condition," said one senior Palestinian official, declining to be named. "He is still in a coma. The sense people are getting is that they are increasingly pessimistic."
This is not good, in my opinion. Palestine has been led almost entirely by Arafat, and there is little uniting the proto-nation other than him (paramilitary groups like Hamas do not unite a nation). If Arafat dies without a recognized and competent successor, all hopes for a peace with Israel are out of the question. This is because it is impossible to make peace with a leaderless nation; the leaders on each side must enforce the treaty on their own people, and a leaderless nation allows anarchy in foreign relations because the population has little reason to obey limits.
If Arafat is dying, here’s what should be done: First, have some power legally transferred to a legitimate leader (a video of Arafat declaring a ‘temporary minister’ for his absence would be great, if Arafat is still able to talk). Then, over a period of several months, give all governmental power to the ‘temporary minister’, and maintain strict discipline over the military and police, which are the largest threat to the Palestinian government. Third, make some short-term peace deal with Israel, so Palestine can focus on reorganizing its government, rather than trying to restrain militants or fighting its neighbor. If you can crack down on groups like Hamas, do so, as they are on the top-5 list of threats. After working out a cease-fire with Israel (which shouldn’t take that long, given the circumstances), double the salary of the military, police, and bodyguards to ensure that they are loyal and can not threaten a coup. It doesn’t matter where this money comes from – as long as it’s not stolen from the Palestinian population – the government could probably take a bit out of Arafat’s personal bank account, which is rumored to hold around 1 billion US.
Once this is done, the government must hold control over the population. The military’s increased salary will keep them happy if they have to work overtime a bit, so this should help prevent citizens from staging a revolt. However, the military and police are quite thin, so the government must find some way to keep the people happy. Free food is often a good way to make poor, hungry people happy, so that may work, depending on how hungry people are (if at all).
Groups like Hamas are unlikely to overlook the power vacuum, so they must either be appeased or suppressed. Appeasement would require a false promise to give them legitimate power, and that power must be given soon so the paramilitaries have some reason to trust the government (promises for positions after the government switches hands are rarely acceptable because there is no incentive to grant power once the government changes hands). Suppressing the paramilitaries would be hard, but is possible over a few months. The entire leadership and suppliers must be eliminated, thus destroying the organization of the groups, and they should either split apart or be inoperable for several months. This, however, is quite risky.
I believe steps like these may be of some use if Palestine is to endure Arafat’s death. If the nation is not prepared to exist without Arafat, it will dissolve into a paramilitary-controlled state without any real government or hope for improvement, and might be similar to Somalia or other paramilitary-controlled states.
However, I doubt there is enough time or capability in the hands of Palestine’s government. Arafat may already be dead, in which case Palestine just might be doing something like what I suggest, because the plan requires people to believe Arafat is still alive for several weeks or months.
The major issue is the future state of Palestine: will it have a centralized government or a Somalia-like anarchy with paramilitaries running around?
posted by Chris at
9:20 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home