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Saturday, October 09, 2004

If you Don't Follow This, Read Some International Political Theory

Saddam worked secretly on WMDs - The Washington Times article

Saddam Hussein's goal through the 1990s and until the 2003 U.S. invasion was to end U.N. sanctions on Iraq, while working covertly to restore the country's ability to produce weapons of mass destruction, a report by the chief U.S. weapons inspector says.

"Saddam wanted to re-create Iraq's WMD capability — which was essentially destroyed in 1991 — after sanctions were removed and Iraq's economy stabilized, but probably with a different mix of capabilities," the report said.
...
With Iraq's economy badly damaged and U.N. sanctions, Mr. Duelfer's report says, Saddam's plans for a skeletal weapons program that could be mobilized quickly led him to pursue the needed materials through illegal and indirect channels.
Starting in 1997 and peaking in 2001, he developed a giant smuggling operation that hinged on the establishment of "a network of Iraqi front companies, some with close relationships to high-ranking foreign-government officials," the report says.
...
Syria was Iraq's "primary conduit for illicit imports" from late 2000 until the start of the U.S. invasion last year, according to the report, which also maintains that the Iraqi Intelligence Service set up front companies to buy prohibited arms from a Syrian totaling $1.2 billion.

To summarize, according to the Washington Times Article, Saddam was planning and preparing to rebuild his weapons programs after sanctions ended. That explains why he retained many scientists who would work on WMD's. Additionally, there is a growing belief that Saddam tried to convince others that he had WMD's, despite not having them. In Realist political theory, this isn't very unreasonable. Let me quote The Might of Nations, by John G. Stoessinger (3rd edition, there are latter editions as well): "The psychological aspect of power is crucial, since a nation's power may depend in considerable measure on what other nations think it is or even what it thinks other nations think it is." (italics in original). I believe Sun Tzu also states something to the effect of "if you are strong, make the enemy think you are weak. If you are weak, make the enemy think you are strong". Since Iraq was weak during the inspections, it might have created an image of strength by acting like it had WMD’s. The military effect of a false impression of strength can be found in Benedict Arnold’s success in scaring a vastly superior British force by convincing the British (and their Indian allies) that a giant army was heading towards them.
So, there is good reason that Saddam would claim to have weapons, and even convince inspectors that he is hiding weapons, if necessary. If this is true, it is impossible to claim that Bush lied to the American people. Instead, one must claim that Saddam lied to the world, and the world fell for it. He who sows the wind reaps the whirlwind, I believe.

1 Comments:

  • In my opinion, Bush is not a liar if he restates information that is false if he does not know the information is false.
    If Bush knew the information was false, but still said it, then he may certainly be called a liar. However, the CIA, FBI, and many foreign intelligence networks believed that Saddam had or was working on weapons. So, Bush may indeed have said something false, but I would not label him a "liar" because the term gives an impression that Bush knew Saddam had no MWD's.
    I hate to make an argument based around the definition of the word "lie", but I certainly will agree that Bush did not make his argument for war with accurate information.

    By Blogger Chris, at 3:57 PM, October 11, 2004  

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