Campaign Strategery II

Because of the attention Bush is geting, and the apparent importance of his speech, I am making a complete re-write of my Campaign Strategy post. So, here's the article.

Structure:
A: Kerry’s problems:
    1: over-exploited Vietnam record
       a: might have fallen in love with his own record
    2: He has said almost nothing about his plans
    3: his base is almost useless
       a: the nucleus of his base consists of Deaniacs
       b: it will take about a month to move the base to real issues
       c: the base is more repulsive than attractive
B: Where Bush stands
    1: has successfully punished Kerry for overusing his war record
    2: has good plans ready, but has rarely presented them
    3: has yet to utilize his base
       a: that base is battle-tested, large, and convincing
C: what Bush needs to do
    1: tonight, he must present the issues (war on terror, Iraq, economy, ect) and his plans for the future, with little or no mention of Kerry
       a: this will put him well ahead, and Kerry may not be able to catch up
    2: in the week or two, he must promote his plans and not let Kerry catch up
    3: two or three weeks after the convention, Bush should be free to use his base
    4: by the middle of September, Bush should be ready to challenge Kerry’s plans



A: Kerry used his war record to get recognition and respect. However, if war records could win elections, John McCain would be running for reelection against Wesley Clark. Kerry overused his limited Vietnam record, and now opponents are cutting deep into his poll numbers for it. Kerry should have used his convention to introduce the broad basis of his plans, thus making Boston the springboard for the last major segment of his campaign. This would not only push his campaign ahead of schedule, but it would have popularized the convention and given Kerry a bounce.
Kerry has already broken an old tradition of pausing his campaign during the opponent’s convention in an effort to hold his poll numbers. However, this attempt will fail because no one is paying attention to Kerry except for his base. The earliest Kerry can begin to promote his plans is the week after the convention, during which Bush should retain the majority of the media coverage. Thus, Kerry has to wait until September 13th, two weeks after the convention, for his plans to receive the attention they need. Kerry will have a lot to catch up on, but he is not good at catching up, while Bush may be holding all the aces.
The Kerry base has been active for a very long time. They have been vocal, and parts of it are protesting Bush as of the writing of this story. However, that base has always been a bit active, going back to the protests in Florida in the 2000 butterfly ballot controversy. Then, that group went on to be Deaniacs. Those (extremely overrated) Deaniacs have been given new shirts and are campaigning for Kerry. They may no longer look like prison escapees, but they act the same (this sentence has two interpretations, both are accurate). It is very difficult to guide a base, especially when it is already active, but Kerry will have to do so. For the first time in about four years, the Bush-haters will have to stop bashing Bush and actually support Kerry and his plans for reasons other than “anything but Bush”. I doubt that Kerry will be able to utilize the nucleus of is base, the former Deaniacs and current protesters, because they repulse the average voter. The average citizen does not chant “anybody but Bush” or spit in the faces of delegates in New York. As a result, Kerry will have to abandon that core and work with a wider base, one that focuses on the Democratic Party’s common values and can connect with the average voter. We have yet to find out if Kerry will abandon the former Deaniacs and if he can focus his base on what really matters. But, when campaign funds run out and speeches have little effect, Kerry will desperately need his supporters to talk with the undecided voters on a personal level.

B: Bush has seen a pre-convention bounce that dissipated whatever blip the Kerry convention had. In addition, groups like Swiftboat Vets for Truth have attacked Kerry’s overused war record with great success, and other pro-Bush 527’s have become active in swing states. Before long, Kerry’s war record will have little effect on the average voter, and political commentators will realize that this over-exploitation was the Kerry campaign’s greatest mistake.
Now, Bush must introduce his plans while Kerry has neither the time nor the ability to respond. The plans are ready; the defenses have been prepared, and they will resonate well with the public. Those plans are currently up Bush’s sleeve. Or, perhaps more accurately, in his pocket, as I expect him to present those plans tonight. Bush’s plans will be accepted by his base rather easily, and that base is more able to advocate plans than the Kerry base is.
Bush also has yet to turn his base loose, and he will probably wait for several weeks to do so. The base has endured through the 2000 election, WMD controversies, and more than a year of democratic primaries, so that base will not falter when challenged nearer to the election. With large numbers of conservatives and practicing Christians, the base is considerably larger than Kerry’s nucleus, and it will prove the best at convincing the swing voters.

C: Bush needs to introduce his plans during the convention, spend several weeks promoting his plans and preparing his base to promote them, and be ready to challenge Kerry’s plans by the middle of September.
In his speech, I do not believe Bush should even mention Kerry. Bush’s speech should be about himself, and what he plans to do in a second term. Kerry-bashing will have little effect, and Bush should take the lead when he has this chance.
Then, in the two weeks after the convention, Bush should campaign almost exclusively to promote his vision for the future. With residual media attention, Bush will have the greatest chance to sell his plans to attendees at speeches and viewers on television. The Kerry campaign will be at least two weeks behind, and will have great difficulty catching up.
Once the speech blitz is over, Bush’s base should be well versed in campaign goals, and will be ready to vocalize for Bush. It is difficult to predict when the base will be unleashed, but I expect it to happen within 10 days after the aforementioned speech blitz.
Finally, by the middle of September, Kerry may have some progress in presenting his goals for the future. The Bush campaign has already built good responses to these plans, so Bush will stay one step ahead to prevent Kerry from re-attracting voters. The longer Kerry stalls before presenting his plans, the farther he will fall in the polls, and Kerry will have little chance to recover.



Well, those are my campaign predictions. It will be interesting to see how right I am, if at all.