Strategy And Its Victims; From Now To The Election
Well, I didn’t have much intention of writing about this incredibly boring “Vietnam controversy” that is rippling through the media and has already cut into the Kerry campaign. Instead of the ubiquitous “this is a controversy, let’s make it more controversial so we can repeat the story tomorrow!” I might as well try to predict what the next moves will be against the Kerry campaign, and consider the long-term effects of those moves.
Swiftboat Vets, or whatever its name is, has planned to release a second commercial soon. However, the Swiftboat Vets have already been paraded through the media for long enough, and a new group may appear to pile up more accusations against Kerry. This will add more credibility to those accusations, and give the impression that there are a ton of people vehemently anti-Kerry (which is true, but they haven’t been very vocal).
Around this time, the Kerry campaign will finally realize that they will lose if they only have a war record, which isn’t particularly clean anyway. Kerry will try to stick to the issues and his plans, but that will be unsuccessful for two reasons. First, Kerry’s plans do not resonate with the average voter, and Kerry can only preach them to his already-cheering diehards. Second, Kerry’s plans are laced with Bush-bashing, which is becoming a major turn-off, because there is nothing the average voter has not heard, and the remaining swing voters have not yet been attracted by insults, so there is no reason for them to follow the bashing now.
I doubt that Bush will say anything bad about Kerry’s military record during the convention, and will present either a Churchillian message (“it is bad now, but we will make it better”), or full-fledged optimism based on the many improvements over the last year and/or months. This should be just what voters are hungry for, and Bush will be able to use his moral character to influence voters, despite all the rhetoric coming from the Kerry campaign and its well-funded supporters.
In the weeks after the GOP convention, we may see a microcosm of the first democratic primary. Like Dean had the disgustingly over-estimated Deaniacs, Kerry will have overestimated Kerryites (many of which were former Deaniacs). Don’t get me wrong, Kerry won’t come off worse than Dean, and certainly won’t crash and burn like Dean, but the public will realize that Kerry’s base is mostly of career diehards (“career” since Gore’s loss in Florida, which too many refuse to shut up about). A base of diehards does not connect to the mainstream, sensible voter. However, Bush’s base has conservatives (there are twice as many conservatives in the US than there are liberals. Thus, conservatives are much closer to the mainstream) and a wide range of battle-tested supporters. If those supporters didn’t give up despite endless insults since the 2000 campaign, they certainly won’t give up in the next few months. So, Bush's base should be better at attracting the few swing voters.
Kerry should have switched to the real issues in the DNC convention, or at least used it to prepare for a switch before the GOP convention. But now, it is the republicans who have all the attention, and they will use it wisely. It seems that Kerry has been moving toward the issues over the past few days, but that strategic shift will instead be seen as a retreat from the attacks on his Vietnam record. The soonest Kerry can reach the issues will be the week after the GOP convention, and Bush will have a good lead, which Kerry is unlikely to make up.
So, assuming I am right (which even I have reason to suspect but not entirely dismiss), why did Kerry wait? Is it possible that he personally enjoyed the splendor of his military service, and tried to savor it for too long? Politicians and generals have both been victim to this problem, but would this be the first time it can influence an election?
update: Here is an excellent article not teribly different from mine. It's an excellent story. Read it.
Swiftboat Vets, or whatever its name is, has planned to release a second commercial soon. However, the Swiftboat Vets have already been paraded through the media for long enough, and a new group may appear to pile up more accusations against Kerry. This will add more credibility to those accusations, and give the impression that there are a ton of people vehemently anti-Kerry (which is true, but they haven’t been very vocal).
Around this time, the Kerry campaign will finally realize that they will lose if they only have a war record, which isn’t particularly clean anyway. Kerry will try to stick to the issues and his plans, but that will be unsuccessful for two reasons. First, Kerry’s plans do not resonate with the average voter, and Kerry can only preach them to his already-cheering diehards. Second, Kerry’s plans are laced with Bush-bashing, which is becoming a major turn-off, because there is nothing the average voter has not heard, and the remaining swing voters have not yet been attracted by insults, so there is no reason for them to follow the bashing now.
I doubt that Bush will say anything bad about Kerry’s military record during the convention, and will present either a Churchillian message (“it is bad now, but we will make it better”), or full-fledged optimism based on the many improvements over the last year and/or months. This should be just what voters are hungry for, and Bush will be able to use his moral character to influence voters, despite all the rhetoric coming from the Kerry campaign and its well-funded supporters.
In the weeks after the GOP convention, we may see a microcosm of the first democratic primary. Like Dean had the disgustingly over-estimated Deaniacs, Kerry will have overestimated Kerryites (many of which were former Deaniacs). Don’t get me wrong, Kerry won’t come off worse than Dean, and certainly won’t crash and burn like Dean, but the public will realize that Kerry’s base is mostly of career diehards (“career” since Gore’s loss in Florida, which too many refuse to shut up about). A base of diehards does not connect to the mainstream, sensible voter. However, Bush’s base has conservatives (there are twice as many conservatives in the US than there are liberals. Thus, conservatives are much closer to the mainstream) and a wide range of battle-tested supporters. If those supporters didn’t give up despite endless insults since the 2000 campaign, they certainly won’t give up in the next few months. So, Bush's base should be better at attracting the few swing voters.
Kerry should have switched to the real issues in the DNC convention, or at least used it to prepare for a switch before the GOP convention. But now, it is the republicans who have all the attention, and they will use it wisely. It seems that Kerry has been moving toward the issues over the past few days, but that strategic shift will instead be seen as a retreat from the attacks on his Vietnam record. The soonest Kerry can reach the issues will be the week after the GOP convention, and Bush will have a good lead, which Kerry is unlikely to make up.
So, assuming I am right (which even I have reason to suspect but not entirely dismiss), why did Kerry wait? Is it possible that he personally enjoyed the splendor of his military service, and tried to savor it for too long? Politicians and generals have both been victim to this problem, but would this be the first time it can influence an election?
update: Here is an excellent article not teribly different from mine. It's an excellent story. Read it.
posted by Chris at
8:29 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home