Arafat Officially, Without A Doubt, Completly, and Irrevivably Dead
I already have my comments on how this affects the larger political situation here.
To summarize, what Palestine needs to do is:
1: grant powers to a 'temporary minister' (already done)
2: ensure loyalty of the military and police, maybe by doubling their salaries, to prevent them from attempting a coup.
3: keep the population under control. A motivated military and police can help do this, but they are stretched a bit thin. Free food always seems to make people happy, no matter what condition they are in.
4: either appease or eliminate paramilitary groups like Hamas. Appeasement would require the groups leaders to be given high government positions now (the groups will not trust the government to uphold promises, for good reason). Elimination requires the leaders and suppliers of the groups to be killed, thus decentralizing them - this may do little in the short term, but it will work in the long term.
All this is easier if people believe Arafat is not yet dead. I have a suspicion that he is either already dead, or will die within a few weeks. If things go badly, Palestine will become decentralized (the only comparison I can make is to Somalia, and that is a bad comparison), in which case and Isreali-Palestinian peace is impossible because there would be no one to enforce it on the Palestinian side.
On November 4th, The Economist released an article (here) that echoes my points; mainly the need to ensure the loyalty of Palestinian police and to work with Sharon to stabilize the situation in whatever way possible.
Personally, I am unsure of how to analyze the placing of Palestine’s security forces on standby. It could either be a legitimate effort to maintain stability, or it could be preparation for a military coup.
My worse-case-scenario for this event is for Palestine to descend into a Somalia-like state (this has little to do with the Black Hawk Down incident). By this, I mean that Palestine could decentralize and eventually eradicate the Palestinian government, thereby allowing warlords to exert control in whatever way they choose. Warlord rivalries prevent any form of legitimate government returning, unless the international community makes an incredible effort to conquer Palestine and build a new government for it.
In this case, a peace with Israel is also impossible. A peace requires the leaders on each side to enforce the terms on their own people. Without a Palestinian leader, there would be no one to enforce the peace treaty in Palestine, and the treaty is doomed to fall apart.
If this happens, the hopes for an Israeli-Palestinian peace would vanish, and Palestine would stay in anarchy indefinitely, thereby continuing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict indefinitely.
That summary was written on the 6th (and posted by me in a comment on the Belmont Club), and had only minor changes from earlier versions a day or two before. It is still very relevant, and turned out to be incredibly accurate. A calm in the Israel-Palestinian relations has already been made in allowing Arafat to be burried, but that temporary peace is intended for a lot more than to let Arafat be burried easily.
To summarize, what Palestine needs to do is:
1: grant powers to a 'temporary minister' (already done)
2: ensure loyalty of the military and police, maybe by doubling their salaries, to prevent them from attempting a coup.
3: keep the population under control. A motivated military and police can help do this, but they are stretched a bit thin. Free food always seems to make people happy, no matter what condition they are in.
4: either appease or eliminate paramilitary groups like Hamas. Appeasement would require the groups leaders to be given high government positions now (the groups will not trust the government to uphold promises, for good reason). Elimination requires the leaders and suppliers of the groups to be killed, thus decentralizing them - this may do little in the short term, but it will work in the long term.
All this is easier if people believe Arafat is not yet dead. I have a suspicion that he is either already dead, or will die within a few weeks. If things go badly, Palestine will become decentralized (the only comparison I can make is to Somalia, and that is a bad comparison), in which case and Isreali-Palestinian peace is impossible because there would be no one to enforce it on the Palestinian side.
On November 4th, The Economist released an article (here) that echoes my points; mainly the need to ensure the loyalty of Palestinian police and to work with Sharon to stabilize the situation in whatever way possible.
Personally, I am unsure of how to analyze the placing of Palestine’s security forces on standby. It could either be a legitimate effort to maintain stability, or it could be preparation for a military coup.
My worse-case-scenario for this event is for Palestine to descend into a Somalia-like state (this has little to do with the Black Hawk Down incident). By this, I mean that Palestine could decentralize and eventually eradicate the Palestinian government, thereby allowing warlords to exert control in whatever way they choose. Warlord rivalries prevent any form of legitimate government returning, unless the international community makes an incredible effort to conquer Palestine and build a new government for it.
In this case, a peace with Israel is also impossible. A peace requires the leaders on each side to enforce the terms on their own people. Without a Palestinian leader, there would be no one to enforce the peace treaty in Palestine, and the treaty is doomed to fall apart.
If this happens, the hopes for an Israeli-Palestinian peace would vanish, and Palestine would stay in anarchy indefinitely, thereby continuing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict indefinitely.
That summary was written on the 6th (and posted by me in a comment on the Belmont Club), and had only minor changes from earlier versions a day or two before. It is still very relevant, and turned out to be incredibly accurate. A calm in the Israel-Palestinian relations has already been made in allowing Arafat to be burried, but that temporary peace is intended for a lot more than to let Arafat be burried easily.
posted by Chris at
8:07 PM
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