21Zogby Predicts A Tie - Hinged on Pennsylvania And Virginia For Victor

Zogby International
If Zogby is right, the winner of Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) will win the election, because Virginia (13 electoral votes) does not have the weight needed to decide the victor.
In the vast majority of polls, Pennsylvania went to Kerry, but the difference between the candidates was far lower than the margin of error (Kerry lead by around 2-4 percent).
Historically, Zogby is the most accurate of all pollsters (as testified here). However, in this election, Zogby has leaned slightly more to the Kerry side than most other polls (especially the Strategic Vision poll, which is consistently republican).
A tie-breaking Pennsylvania could be worse than 2000's Florida. Already, there have been reports that around 2000 votes were already listed on machines before voting was supposed to begin. Additionally, it is believed that several volunteers in one prison allowed all inmates to vote (they were not supervised and had very little training. The lack of supervision, to me, is very concerning), though only inmates who are not yet convicted have the legal right to vote. Convicted felons are heavily democrat. The Governor of Pennsylvania sent an unprecedented letter to all prison wardens insisting that unconvicted inmates are able to vote (this is perfectly legal, and probably recommended as it should have eliminated possible disenfranchisement). However, the military ballots were delayed by extensive disputes over if Nader qualifies, resulting in ballots being sent out late enough that very few would return by November 2nd, the deadline for absentee ballots. At first, the governor refused to issue an extension (even though he issued an extension earlier to allow a fellow Democrat to receive more votes, thus allowing that Democrat to win the election. This decision was, and still is, very controversial), but he has recently decided to accept all absentee ballots until November 10th. Military members vote somewhere between 70% and 75% republican.
Additionally, there are reports that power to the Philadelphia GOP headquarters was cut/failed for unknown reasons. The Kerry campaign headquarters, across the street, was not affected. However, I have only heard this on the radio once, and cannot find many recent news sources to substantiate or update this report.

Drudge, who has received 12 million visitors over the last 24 hours (is that a record for him? It seems extraordinarily high, even for him), has posted few updates since around 3 PM EST (it is now 6 PM EST)

Additionally, there is an excellent pledge by Jeff Jarvises:

no matter who wins:

I will not proclaim that the president is incompetent for failing to magically resolve some tough geopolitical situation, such as North Korea's nukes or the Israel/Palestine problem, unless I can propose something with stronger logic to recommend it than the fact that the president isn't doing it right now.

I will not obsess about trivial details of the president's demeanor, speech patterns, or long-past personal history.

I will not secretly hope that he fails at important goals so that I can elect someone from the other party four years hence.

I will not pretend that the president's budget is better, or worse, than it is, which is to say terrible.

I will not attribute magical powers to the president to heal the economy, large-scale social problems, or the growing rift between my boyfriend and myself on the matter of green vegetables. I will neither praise the president for improvement in these situations, nor criticise him for failing to mend them.

I will not point out all the bad news, or all the good news, while hoping no one notices the other sort.

I will ruthlessly make fun of the president's verbal tics, extravagent promises, and useless programmes.

I will not use my one semester of Psych 101 to make speculative diagnoses of mental disease or defect in the president.

I will assume, until proven otherwise, that the president, like most politicians, is making stupid laws because he wants to appease key interest groups (a.k.a. The American People), not because He Is Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeevil.

I will not write long, stupid posts on how the man I voted for, and his party, are wonderful people--intelligent, sensitive, and well-informed--while the other party, and its voters, are a bunch of moronic thugs who want only to Destroy a Once Great Nation. Nor will I deliver such rants in person.

I will not write anything containing the sentence "The administration has hit a new low . . . "

And if I have to listen to one more such, I'll pull my hair out, really I will. And it's such nice hair too, soft and shiny with natural ringlets. So can't we all just get along?

And, an election results schedule is here. 7:30 includes the Ohio closing, and 8:00 includes the end of voting in Pennsylvania, Florida, New Jersey, and a few other small yet important states. Apparently 8:00 will be the most important time, as it resolves most major battlegrounds and 2 of 3 states believed to determine the election (the three are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida).
I believe Ohio and Florida will go to Bush. I have held this opinion for quite a while, and Zogby reinforces it. Pennsylvania has a 60% to 75% chance of going Kerry, in my opinion, and the state’s controversies have been a huge wildcard (they can either galvanize voters or push the state farther Kerry). Plus, I think at least one of the Northern, center-of-the-nation states that Zogby gave to Kerry will actually vote Bush (not Michigan, though. One word: “Detroit”). Finally, I doubt that both Colorado and New Mexico will go Kerry. At least one should end up Bush. Virginia, in my opinion, will go Bush, as this is the first time I’ve seen it vote Kerry, unless I have missed a lot of the electoral map. Virginia, at least one of the Northern states, and New Mexico or Colorado should give the election to Bush. New Jersey and New Hampshire will probably go Kerry (though Jersey may change in a reaction to their Governor’s appointment of his incompetent and unqualified boyfriend as head of the New Jersey Homeland Security department. That’s quite a reason to switch parties).
This election may turn out closer than I thought, but I believe it will go to Bush.