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Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Iran Endorses... Bush?

The Globe and Mail article

The head of Iran's security council said Tuesday that the re-election of U.S. President Bush was in Tehran's best interests, despite the administration's axis of evil label, accusations that Iran harbours al-Qaeda terrorists and threats of sanctions over the country's nuclear ambitions.
Historically, Democrats have harmed Iran more than Republicans, said Hasan Rowhani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top security decision-making body.
“We haven't seen anything good from Democrats,” Mr. Rowhani told state-run television in remarks that, for the first time in recent decades, saw Iran openly supporting one U.S. presidential candidate over another.
Iranian political analyst Mohsen Mofidi said ousting the Taliban and Saddam Hussein was the “biggest service any administration could have done for Iran.”
And Mr. Bush, he said, has learned from his mistakes.
“The experience of two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the responsibility Bush had, will make it a very remote possibility for him to risk attacking a much bigger and more powerful country like Iran,” he said.
Mr. Mofidi added that “Democrats usually insist on human rights and they will have more excuses to pressure Iran.

I will have to rethink my entire analysis of Iran. This re-analysis has nothing to do with the possibility that Iran actually supports Bush; rather, it is because I thought Iran acted in international affairs based on rational calculations. I will agree that ousting Saddam Hussein had a positive side-effect for Iran, as the two have been at odds since the end of the Iran-Iraq War (which Saddam ended unexpectedly so he could use his entire military for the Gulf War). However, a democratic, non-fundamentalist neighbor is not good for Iran, especially because the people of Iran do not support the government.
It also seems that Iran does not realize the power and plans of the Bush administration. No matter how much better the Iranian military is than that of Iraq, they can be destroyed just as decisively, if not more so, than the Iraqi military in Gulf War II/Iraqi Liberation. Not only does the US have great experience in mid-east warfare, but we’ve also been improving weaponry and will not make many of the mistakes (though they weren’t very costly by military standards) of Iraq.
Bush seems quite determined to keep forcing democracy down the throat of Arabs. I suspect that Iran may be next. Perhaps Syria is a target, and the US would love to topple the Saudi royal family, but Iran is a big and easy target, especially now that over 100,000 US troops are right next door in Iraq.

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