Lebanese Government Resigns Amid anti_syria Protests
the full article is 4 pages, so I'll quote parts. What just happened:
With shouts of "Syria out!," more than 25,000 flag-waving protesters massed outside Parliament on Monday in a dramatic display of defiance that forced the resignation of Lebanon's prime minister and Cabinet two weeks after the assassination of an opposition leader.
Cheering broke out among the demonstrators in Martyrs' Square when they heard Prime Minister Omar Karami's announcement on loudspeakers that the government was stepping down. Throughout the day, protesters handed out red roses to soldiers and police.
"It is the first victory, but it will not be the last," opposition leader and former information minister Ghazi al-Areedh told the crowd in a scene broadcast live around the Arab world.
why now:
Many in Lebanon accuse Syria and Karami's government of being behind the slayings of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 16 others in a huge Feb. 14 bombing, pressing hard in the two weeks since for the government to resign and for Syria to withdraw its roughly 15,000 troops positioned in Lebanon.
Also, it is important to mention the influence of the Iraqi and Palestinian elections, and the recent announcement that Egypt will allow opposition candidates to be on election ballots. Further, Ukraine likely served as an example of the populace overthrowing the government peacefully.
What will happen:
Throughout the day, protesters handed out red roses to soldiers and police.
...
In Washington, the White House praised the resignation of Karami's government, saying it opens the door for new elections "free of all foreign interference" from neighboring Syria.
"We are closely watching developments with great interest," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said. "The resignation of the Karami government represents an opportunity for the Lebanese people to have a new government that is truly representative of their country's diversity."
Karami's Cabinet will continue as a caretaker government. The next step is for the president to appoint a prime minister after consulting with parliament members. The new prime minister consults parliamentary blocs to form a Cabinet that must withstand a parliamentary vote of confidence.
...
The protesters went further, immediately shouting for the resignation of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud.
"Lahoud, your turn is coming!" they said.
Speakers urged demonstrators to stay put, saying the leaders of the security services also must be ousted.
"The heads of security agencies are responsible for what happened in this country and they must pay," legislator Ghattas Khoury said. "Do not leave this square before they resign."
…
Some soldiers and police even sympathized with the protesters and were seen advising newcomers on how to evade the cordon.
Those quotes might look a bit unrelated to the "what will happen" topic, but in fact they are the best indicators of what to expect. Thumbs-up to Bassem Mroue for writing this great story so well.
There are only a few things that are needed for a successful revolution or to successfully run a nation: a police force that supports you, a competent and adequate military that supports you, a supportive populace or supportive media, and a system of government that can manage the nation. It looks like the Lebanese protesters have all or almost all of this. The giving of roses to police and the support of the military (at least parts of it) shows that the Lebanese government will not be able to stop the revolution by force. Lebanese protestors already have the support of most of Lebanon, though there are a few detractors. The revolution leaders are smart, and the ones mentioned in the article previously held jobs in the government, so they will know how to pick up the reins and prevent law and order from deteriorating. Additionally, the call to find out who killed the former Prime Minister will allow some time for planning. The protesting masses are properly disciplined, as many would attack the police or military if revolutionary leaders were not in control of the situation.
Bush's plan to bring democracy to the mid-east seems to be working far better than I ever expected, which makes me wonder about the influence the US has in the area and the general nature of politics in the area. Either way, the CIA should be aiding the revolutionaries considerably, with both people on the ground and intelligence. And, I assume the State Department is keeping watch on Lebanon's neighbors to ensure things go as smoothly as a revolution can.

